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  • What We've Learned
Computer models helps assess the burden of osteoarthritis and low back pain
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Scientific Study Title:
Computer models helps assess the burden of osteoarthritis and low back pain
Start Date:
  • July 2015
End Date:
  • June 2022
Research Category
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Jacek Kopec, Research Team Member, Arthritis Research Canada
Jacek Kopec
Senior Scientist Emeritus, Epidemiology, MD, MSc, PhD
John Esdaile, Research Team Member, Arthritis Research Canada
John Esdaile
Scientific Director Emeritus, MD, MPH, FRCPC, FCAHS, MACR
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Jolanda Cibere
Senior Scientist Emeritus, Rheumatology, MD, FRCPC, PhD
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Linda Li
Senior Scientist, Implementation Science, BSc(PT), MSc, PhD, FCAHS
Nick Bansback, Research Team Member, Arthritis Research Canada
Nick Bansback
Research Scientist, Health Economics, MSc, PhD

What did we do?

Execution of Research

In the OA study, we simulated the number of people with OA and their quality of life in Canada in a computer model. We then tested “what-if” scenarios in which we changed the prevalence of obesity, use of painkillers and rates of surgery in Canada to find out how the number of people with OA and their quality of life would change as a result.

In the LBP study, we also modeled the Canadian population. The population health impact of the interventions was calculated as a difference in years lived with disability (YLDs) between the base-case scenario and each intervention scenario, and expressed as YLDs averted per intervention unit or a proportion (%) of total LBP-related YLDs.

SimYouLate is flexible, continuous-time microsimulation software, designed specifically for modelers with no programming background and particularly suitable for population health modeling. The LBP study has demonstrated how SimYouLate can be used to develop and apply complex intervention models rapidly.

How Can People Get Involved?

Involvement

Investigators in this study were ARC researchers and a representative of policymakers.

 

Related Publications

  1. Kopec JA, Sayre EC, Okhmatovskaia A, Cibere J, Li LC, Bansback N, Wong H, Ghanbarian S, Esdaile JM. A comparison of three strategies to reduce the burden of osteoarthritis: A population-based microsimulation study. PLOS ONE. 2021 Dec 8;16(12):e0261017. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0261017.
  2. Kopec JA, Sayre EC, Cibere J, Li LC, Wong H, Okhmatovskaia A, Esdaile JM. Reducing the burden of low back pain: results from a new microsimulation model. BMC Musculoskelet Disord. 2022;23(1):804.

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