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  • Research Completed
Development of a new life expectancy and quality of life prediction model for Canadians
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Scientific Study Title:
Development of a new life expectancy and quality of life prediction model for Canadians
Start Date:
  • May 2018
End Date:
  • May 2020
Research Category
Tags
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Jacek Kopec
Senior Scientist Emeritus, Epidemiology, MD, MSc, PhD
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Linda Li
Senior Scientist, Implementation Science, BSc(PT), MSc, PhD, FCAHS
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Hui Xie
Senior Scientist, Biostatistics, BSc, MS, PhD
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John Esdaile
Scientific Director Emeritus, MD, MPH, FRCPC, FCAHS, MACR

Why do this research?

Reason For Research

The potential of life expectancy calculators and risk prediction models to improve individual and population health is important. However, existing prediction models have limitations – for example, they are often restricted to a single condition (e.g., heart disease, diabetes) and a limited number of risk factors. We conducted this research to develop a new life expectancy model for Canadians, the Canadian Risk and Health Manager (CHaRM), to overcome these limitations. Our goals were that the CHaRM model would:

  1. Predict the risk of death and estimate how long people might live; and
  2. Give information on how various health risks together can impact a person’s life expectancy.

Methodology

Execution of Research

We used data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study. This data represents the most thorough evaluation of risk factor burdens. We made life expectancy tables for both men and women by gathering information on how often people of different ages and sexes die from 270 different diseases. We also looked at how common 51 risk factors are in the population and how each risk factor is linked to each disease. Using this information, we figured out how much longer people might live if we got rid of each risk factor. We also calculated life expectancy for people exposed to different levels of each risk factor, and how much life expectancy could increase if we reduced several risk factors at the same time, for people at various ages.

Findings & Next Steps

We found that if we eliminated all health risks, men in Canada could expect to live about 6 years longer and women about 5 years longer. The biggest improvement for men would come from stopping smoking. For women, the biggest benefit would be from lowering high blood pressure. The way these risks affect how long people live isn’t straightforward – it changes depending on other risks they might have (for example, high cholesterol). For people with many high risks, reducing or getting rid of these risks could add several years to their lives, even if they are already at a higher age when making these changes in lifestyle (e.g., stopping smoking).

Related Publications

  • Kopec, J. A., Sayre, E. C., Shams, B., Li, L. C., Xie, H., Feehan, L. M., & Esdaile, J. M. (2022). The Impact of 51 Risk Factors on Life Expectancy in Canada: Findings from a New Risk Prediction Model Based on Data from the Global Burden of Disease Study. International journal of environmental research and public health, 19(15), 8958. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19158958

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