Development of a new life expectancy and quality of life prediction model for Canadians – Canadian Health and Risk Manager (CHaRM)

Principal Investigator:

Jacek Kopec, MD, PhD, Professor, School  of Population and Public Health, UBC; Senior Research Scientist, Arthritis Research Canada.  

Study Start Date:  May 2018

Study End Date: May 2020

Why do this research?

The potential for life expectancy calculators and risk prediction models for improving individual and population health is enormous. The problem is that the prediction models that exist today suffer from major limitations. In particular, they are usually restricted to one condition and a few risk factors. Our project will develop a comprehensive tool, the Canadian Risk and Health Manager (CHaRM), to predict the risk of death and disability with no such restrictions. Our model will consider all established risk factors (total 64) to predict death from 270 diseases and injuries. Also, currently available models have been developed using data from a small number of studies. In contrast, our model will use all published data collected by the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD), the most comprehensive and detailed assessment of risk factor burden by age, sex, disease, and location over time. Furthermore, CHaRM will be user-friendly, flexible, and easily adaptable to any country. As a result of these innovations, the model will provide a novel and unique perspective on the impact of changing lifestyle, occupational, environmental and physiological risk factors on life expectancy, and the risk of disease, disability, and death.  

What will be done?

A computer model for CHaRM and the associated database will be developed. The plausibility and internal consistency of the model will be evaluated. The model will be validated by comparing the results with data from the literature and other models. The online model and a website will be made accessible to researchers, clinicians, and lay users.  

Who is involved?

Primarily physicians, researchers, and experts will have access to the online calculator. The tool will potentially be accessible to general people.  

Co-investigators:

Esdaile, JM; Feehan, L; Li, LC; Xie, H  

Research Staff:

Eric Sayre, PhD, Benajir Shams, MSc, Arthritis Research Canada.  

Funding Agency:  

Canadian Institutes of Health Research